Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (100%). 5 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

South Africa vs. Kenya: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 0.1¢ · $312 held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$312.24

Combined PnL

-$188.55

Smart Money Entry

65.8¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$92.78

Total Shares93

Combined PnL+$17.17

Under5 traders

Total Value$4.45

Total Shares319

Combined PnL-$205.72

Over — 44%Under — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 49.3¢	$285.99	$215.01	-$70.99	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ Over leg	Overavg 31.8¢	$45.59	$141.83	+$96.24
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.3¢	$240.41	$73.18	-$167.23
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Overavg 99¢	$71.09	$71.77	+$0.68	98% 343-6 (349)
MA MadridTime<$100	Overavg 22¢	$2.37	$10.78	+$8.41	36% 763-1361 (2124)
VE Venusian<$100	Overavg 21¢	$1.1	$5.22	+$4.12	34% 736-1405 (2141)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Overavg 21¢	$1.05	$5	+$3.95	36% 432-771 (1203)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Underavg 60¢	$11.4	$2.85	-$8.55	50% 2262-2219 (4481)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 49¢	$4.76	$1.46	-$3.3	35% 750-1386 (2136)
DA dashattackerCTR	Underavg 73.9¢	$185.1	$0.13	-$184.97	63% 271-157 (428)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 14.2¢	$4.97	$0.02	-$4.95	47% 786-902 (1688)
ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100	Underavg 79¢	$3.95	$0	-$3.95	82% 538-116 (654)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$285.99

Value

$215.01

PnL

-$70.99

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Over$45.5931.8¢+$96.24

Under$240.4149.3¢-$167.23

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Over

Invested

$71.09

Value

$71.77

PnL

+$0.68

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

MadridTime<$100

Over

Invested

$2.37

Value

$10.78

PnL

+$8.41

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

Venusian<$100

Over

Invested

$1.1

Value

$5.22

PnL

+$4.12

Record

34%

736-1405 (2141)

0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100

Over

Invested

$1.05

Value

PnL

+$3.95

Record

36%

432-771 (1203)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.4

Value

$2.85

PnL

-$8.55

Record

50%

2262-2219 (4481)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.76

Value

$1.46

PnL

-$3.3

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

dashattackerCTR

Under

Invested

$185.1

Value

$0.13

PnL

-$184.97

Record

63%

271-157 (428)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.97

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$4.95

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

ARTEM-DZYUBACTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

PnL

-$3.95

Record

82%

538-116 (654)

Research grade

AvoidUnder at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)Underdog side (market favors Over 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 50% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.