Will South Africa vs. Kenya end in a draw?

8 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 71¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes30¢No70¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$25.57

Smart Money Entry

83.9¢ → 70.5¢

-16% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes30%

No71%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,396

Combined PnL-$160.97

Yes8 traders

Total Value$332.54

Total Shares1,238

Combined PnL+$135.4

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SP spyGoodLuck77	Noavg 81.4¢	$429.5	$371.89	-$57.61	8% 27-316 (343)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 13.4¢	$119.68	$263.39	+$143.71	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE Venusian	Noavg 84¢	$336.71	$257.97	-$45.56	34% 735-1404 (2139)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 83.3¢	$180.14	$177.53	-$2.61	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 91.3¢	$110.3	$85.14	-$25.16	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
FO foooool<$100	Noavg 90¢	$99.9	$78.81	-$21.09	39% 37-59 (96)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$47.36	$48.18	+$0.82	36% 761-1361 (2122)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 83¢	$44.46	$39.64	-$4.82	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P<$100	Noavg 83¢	$19.33	$15.56	-$3.76	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 74¢	$8.88	$8.52	-$0.36	32% 291-613 (904)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16.1¢	$14.65	$7.27	-$7.37	43% 808-1065 (1873)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$1.41	$5.2	+$3.79	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
WA waiermaCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$10	$4.71	-$5.29	10% 11-100 (111)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 30¢	$2	$1.93	-$0.07	20% 47-184 (231)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.71	$1.71	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$0.34	$0.16	-$0.18	54% 1849-1555 (3404)

spyGoodLuck77

Invested

$429.5

Value

$371.89

PnL

-$57.61

Record

27-316 (343)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$119.68

Value

$263.39

PnL

+$143.71

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Venusian

Invested

$336.71

Value

$257.97

PnL

-$45.56

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$180.14

Value

$177.53

PnL

-$2.61

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$110.3

Value

$85.14

PnL

-$25.16

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

foooool<$100

Invested

$99.9

Value

$78.81

PnL

-$21.09

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$47.36

Value

$48.18

PnL

+$0.82

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$44.46

Value

$39.64

PnL

-$4.82

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P<$100

Invested

$19.33

Value

$15.56

PnL

-$3.76

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$8.88

Value

$8.52

PnL

-$0.36

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$14.65

Value

$7.27

PnL

-$7.37

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.41

Value

$5.2

PnL

+$3.79

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

waiermaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$4.71

PnL

-$5.29

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$1.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.71

Value

$1.71

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.34

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.18

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 71%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 16 top traders (50%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%11 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+19 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 66%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

62% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 66% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000No 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance72.5%

70.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$37.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

137.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.