Spread: Nigeria (-2.5)

4 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Tanzania (33%) · Tanzania at 59¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 13

Nigeria41¢Tanzania59¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Tanzania

Consensus Traders

Tanzania 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$3.1K

Combined PnL

-$90.81

Smart Money Entry

53.7¢ → 59¢

+10% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralTanzania at 59%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Tanzania

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Nigeria41%

Tanzania59%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Nigeria8 traders

Total Value$1.4K

Total Shares2,842

Combined PnL-$17.43

Tanzania4 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares3,191

Combined PnL-$73.38

Nigeria — 67%Tanzania — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Tanzania. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNigeria 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNigeria 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nigeria 67% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Nigeriaavg 51.1¢	$999.14	$905.47	-$93.67	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
DA DanielsDixon	Tanzaniaavg 64¢	$640	$848.89	+$208.89	8% 5-58 (63)
VE Venusian	Tanzaniaavg 48¢	$790	$592.2	-$197.8	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Nigeriaavg 35.9¢	$192.08	$235.26	+$43.18	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Nigeriaavg 36¢	$167.51	$204.74	+$37.22	36% 761-1361 (2122)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Tanzaniaavg 51.9¢	$279.69	$193.85	-$85.83	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
poshposhARB<$100	Nigeriaavg 48.2¢	$224.96	$73.26	-$151.71	46% 781-902 (1683)
└ Nigeria leg	Nigeriaavg 48.2¢	$207.22	$40.87	-$166.35
└ Tanzania leg	Tanzaniaavg 49.6¢	$17.74	$32.39	+$14.65
RO Rocko33CTR<$100	Nigeriaavg 58¢	$16.3	$17.98	+$1.69	60% 55-37 (92)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Nigeriaavg 35¢	$5.16	$6.48	+$1.32	53% 1030-921 (1951)
SU suntori<$100	Tanzaniaavg 66¢	$4.76	$6.12	+$1.36	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Nigeriaavg 42¢	$4.2	$0.95	-$3.25	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Nigeriaavg 36¢	$2.99	$0.79	-$2.2	20% 47-184 (231)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Nigeriaavg 44¢	$2.2	$0.48	-$1.73	35% 735-1379 (2114)

FlaznorpCTR

Nigeria

Invested

$999.14

Value

$905.47

PnL

-$93.67

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

DanielsDixon

Tanzania

Invested

$640

Value

$848.89

PnL

+$208.89

Record

5-58 (63)

Venusian

Tanzania

Invested

$790

Value

$592.2

PnL

-$197.8

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Nigeria

Invested

$192.08

Value

$235.26

PnL

+$43.18

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

MadridTimeCTR

Nigeria

Invested

$167.51

Value

$204.74

PnL

+$37.22

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Tanzania

Invested

$279.69

Value

$193.85

PnL

-$85.83

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

poshposhARB<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$224.96

Value

$73.26

PnL

-$151.71

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

Both legs:

Nigeria$207.2248.2¢-$166.35

Tanzania$17.7449.6¢+$14.65

Rocko33CTR<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$16.3

Value

$17.98

PnL

+$1.69

Record

60%

55-37 (92)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$5.16

Value

$6.48

PnL

+$1.32

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

suntori<$100

Tanzania

Invested

$4.76

Value

$6.12

PnL

+$1.36

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$4.2

Value

$0.95

PnL

-$3.25

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$2.99

Value

$0.79

PnL

-$2.2

Record

20%

47-184 (231)

LimousinCTR<$100

Nigeria

Invested

$2.2

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$1.73

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

Research grade

NeutralTanzania at 59%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Tanzania

4 of 12 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed8 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 83%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on Tanzania. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNigeria 60% · 10

Diverging

Hand-pickedNigeria 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Nigeria 67% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Tanzania wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.2%

59.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$63.40

Max Loss

-$100.00

163.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.