Will Nigeria vs. Tanzania end in a draw?

8 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold No (62%) · No at 72¢ · $500 held · ended Nov 13

Yes28¢No72¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 62%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$499.54

Combined PnL

-$17.6

Smart Money Entry

87.9¢ → 71.5¢

-19% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No72%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$251.75

Total Shares312

Combined PnL-$28.44

Yes5 traders

Total Value$71.59

Total Shares288

Combined PnL+$10.84

No — 62%Yes — 38%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 79.8¢	$140.61	$176.2	+$35.6	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ No leg	Noavg 79.8¢	$114.34	$107.42	-$6.93
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 9.5¢	$26.26	$68.79	+$42.53
MA MadridTime	Noavg 87¢	$124.67	$106.28	-$15.34	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$49.5	$56.25	+$6.75	36% 326-587 (913)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 87¢	$50.46	$43.5	-$6.96	33% 251-499 (750)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 94¢	$54.35	$41.34	-$13.01	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100	Noavg 74¢	$17.97	$28.2	+$10.24	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
SP spyGoodLuck77<$100	Noavg 92¢	$17.84	$13.86	-$3.97	8% 27-316 (343)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$4.76	$8.16	+$3.4	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 87¢	$8.7	$7.5	-$1.2	26% 250-703 (953)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.61	$7.31	+$2.7	46% 781-902 (1683)
RI RichieRicher<$100	Noavg 93¢	$4.65	$3.75	-$0.9	54% 467-398 (865)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$4.09	$3.53	-$0.56	34% 735-1404 (2139)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$1.2	$2.4	+$1.2	53% 1030-921 (1951)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 24¢	$1.2	$1.25	+$0.05	35% 749-1385 (2134)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$140.61

Value

$176.2

PnL

+$35.6

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

No$114.3479.8¢-$6.93

Yes$26.269.5¢+$42.53

MadridTime

Invested

$124.67

Value

$106.28

PnL

-$15.34

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$49.5

Value

$56.25

PnL

+$6.75

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$50.46

Value

$43.5

PnL

-$6.96

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$54.35

Value

$41.34

PnL

-$13.01

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100

Invested

$17.97

Value

$28.2

PnL

+$10.24

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

spyGoodLuck77<$100

Invested

$17.84

Value

$13.86

PnL

-$3.97

Record

27-316 (343)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$8.16

PnL

+$3.4

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$8.7

Value

$7.5

PnL

-$1.2

Record

26%

250-703 (953)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$4.61

Value

$7.31

PnL

+$2.7

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

RichieRicher<$100

Invested

$4.65

Value

$3.75

PnL

-$0.9

Record

54%

467-398 (865)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.09

Value

$3.53

PnL

-$0.56

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$2.4

PnL

+$1.2

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.2

Value

$1.25

PnL

+$0.05

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 72%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 13 top traders (62%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 67%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

58% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 67% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

ctrYes 63% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 64% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance73.5%

71.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$36.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

136.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.