Will Ivory Coast vs. Gambia end in a draw?
7 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (64%) · No at 90¢ · $351 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 64%
$350.51
$5.57
92.9¢ → 90¢
-3% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 11 top traders (64%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 97.3¢ | $126.72 | $117.18 | -$9.54 | 40% 3308-4940 (8248) |
 dips.<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $69.41 | $70.13 | +$0.72 | 45% 544-659 (1203) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Noavg 88¢ | $38.72 | $43.82 | +$5.1 | 44% 405-509 (914) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $24.88 | $28.81 | +$3.93 | 33% 556-1141 (1697) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 89.3¢ | $24.55 | $27.07 | +$2.52 | 47% 549-607 (1156) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $22.53 | $26.71 | +$4.18 | 32% 542-1134 (1676) |
AL AlegrandebigCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5.6¢ | $10.59 | $20.48 | +$9.89 | — 12-7 (19) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $23.13 | $15.78 | -$7.36 | 22% 178-642 (820) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4¢ | $2.44 | $0.25 | -$2.19 | 42% 353-481 (834) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $2.57 | $0.18 | -$1.14 | 52% 784-728 (1512) |
TH thirdt1meCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $0.65 | $0.09 | -$0.56 | 45% 160-198 (358) |
Invested
$126.72
Value
$117.18
PnL
-$9.54
Record
40%
3308-4940 (8248)
dips.<$100Invested
$69.41
Value
$70.13
PnL
+$0.72
Record
45%
544-659 (1203)
Invested
$38.72
Value
$43.82
PnL
+$5.1
Record
44%
405-509 (914)
Invested
$24.88
Value
$28.81
PnL
+$3.93
Record
33%
556-1141 (1697)
poshposh<$100Invested
$24.55
Value
$27.07
PnL
+$2.52
Record
47%
549-607 (1156)
Invested
$22.53
Value
$26.71
PnL
+$4.18
Record
32%
542-1134 (1676)
Invested
$10.59
Value
$20.48
PnL
+$9.89
Record
—
12-7 (19)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$23.13
Value
$15.78
PnL
-$7.36
Record
22%
178-642 (820)
Invested
$2.44
Value
$0.25
PnL
-$2.19
Record
42%
353-481 (834)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.57
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$1.14
Record
52%
784-728 (1512)
Invested
$0.65
Value
$0.09
PnL
-$0.56
Record
45%
160-198 (358)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.