Will Guinea vs. Eritrea end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 87¢ · $719 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$718.72
$12.15
85.4¢ → 86.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
63% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LI Limousin | Noavg 85¢ | $384.2 | $416 | +$31.8 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 85¢ | $230 | $216.08 | -$13.92 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 92.3¢ | $36.9 | $36 | -$0.9 | 40% 3295-4922 (8217) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 85.6¢ | $32.8 | $31.44 | -$1.36 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $19.34 | $17 | -$2.33 | 33% 558-1111 (1669) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 8¢ | $0.8 | $0.8 | +$0 | 22% 178-637 (815) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $1.5 | $0.8 | -$0.7 | 52% 773-714 (1487) |
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $1.03 | $0.59 | -$0.44 | 49% 1241-1273 (2514) |
Invested
$384.2
Value
$416
PnL
+$31.8
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$230
Value
$216.08
PnL
-$13.92
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$36.9
Value
$36
PnL
-$0.9
Record
40%
3295-4922 (8217)
Invested
$32.8
Value
$31.44
PnL
-$1.36
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$19.34
Value
$17
PnL
-$2.33
Record
33%
558-1111 (1669)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$0.8
Value
$0.8
PnL
+$0
Record
22%
178-637 (815)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$1.5
Value
$0.8
PnL
-$0.7
Record
52%
773-714 (1487)
Invested
$1.03
Value
$0.59
PnL
-$0.44
Record
49%
1241-1273 (2514)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.