Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 5 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Gabon vs. Lesotho end in a draw?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (63%) · Yes at 0.8¢ · $95 held · ended Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
8
Yes 63%
$94.84
-$0.95
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 65%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 65% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $53.78 | $67.82 | +$14.04 | 47% 786-902 (1688) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $8.4 | $9.2 | +$0.8 | 35% 736-1380 (2116) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14¢ | $7.33 | $7.85 | +$0.52 | 51% 3195-3131 (6326) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $4.6 | $4.6 | +$0 | 39% 3489-5413 (8902) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15.6¢ | $6.84 | $3.51 | -$3.33 | 46% 2104-2463 (4567) |
 dips.CTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $7.4 | $1.6 | -$5.8 | 46% 741-865 (1606) |
SU suitcase6628CTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $4 | $0.16 | -$3.84 | 63% 464-269 (733) |
SM smithagentCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $3.44 | $0.1 | -$3.34 | 43% 507-662 (1169) |
poshposh<$100Invested
$53.78
Value
$67.82
PnL
+$14.04
Record
47%
786-902 (1688)
Invested
$8.4
Value
$9.2
PnL
+$0.8
Record
35%
736-1380 (2116)
Invested
$7.33
Value
$7.85
PnL
+$0.52
Record
51%
3195-3131 (6326)
Invested
$4.6
Value
$4.6
PnL
+$0
Record
39%
3489-5413 (8902)
Invested
$6.84
Value
$3.51
PnL
-$3.33
Record
46%
2104-2463 (4567)
dips.CTR<$100Invested
$7.4
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$5.8
Record
46%
741-865 (1606)
Invested
$4
Value
$0.16
PnL
-$3.84
Record
63%
464-269 (733)
Invested
$3.44
Value
$0.1
PnL
-$3.34
Record
43%
507-662 (1169)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.