Will Malawi win on 2026-11-13?
11 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 98¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 100%
$3.3K
$19.57
97.3¢ → 98¢
+1% since entry · 11 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 98%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
11 of 11 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
11 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Mature
38h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MA MadridTime | Noavg 97.7¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$4.63 | 36% 761-1361 (2122) |
VE Venusian | Noavg 97¢ | $315.25 | $318.18 | +$2.93 | 34% 735-1404 (2139) |
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 95.5¢ | $183.15 | $187.72 | +$4.57 | 56% 307-245 (552) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 97.8¢ | $137.36 | $137.8 | +$0.44 | 39% 3479-5356 (8835) |
 poshposh | Noavg 94.8¢ | $102.82 | $106.18 | +$3.36 | 46% 781-902 (1683) |
 VeryLucky888<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $61.59 | $63.64 | +$2.05 | 53% 1030-921 (1951) |
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 96.2¢ | $145.6 | $49.1 | +$1.4 | 50% 3193-3131 (6324) |
LI Limousin<$100 | Noavg 97.6¢ | $45.53 | $45.68 | +$0.15 | 35% 735-1379 (2114) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Noavg 97.5¢ | $20.28 | $20.36 | +$0.08 | 48% 677-745 (1422) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 96¢ | $12.58 | $12.49 | -$0.09 | 43% 808-1065 (1873) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 97¢ | $4.85 | $4.9 | +$0.05 | 49% 1668-1706 (3374) |
Invested
$2,335.15
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$4.63
Record
36%
761-1361 (2122)
Invested
$315.25
Value
$318.18
PnL
+$2.93
Record
34%
735-1404 (2139)
Invested
$183.15
Value
$187.72
PnL
+$4.57
Record
56%
307-245 (552)
Invested
$137.36
Value
$137.8
PnL
+$0.44
Record
39%
3479-5356 (8835)
poshposhInvested
$102.82
Value
$106.18
PnL
+$3.36
Record
46%
781-902 (1683)
VeryLucky888<$100Invested
$61.59
Value
$63.64
PnL
+$2.05
Record
53%
1030-921 (1951)
Invested
$145.6
Value
$49.1
PnL
+$1.4
Record
50%
3193-3131 (6324)
Invested
$45.53
Value
$45.68
PnL
+$0.15
Record
35%
735-1379 (2114)
Invested
$20.28
Value
$20.36
PnL
+$0.08
Record
48%
677-745 (1422)
Invested
$12.58
Value
$12.49
PnL
-$0.09
Record
43%
808-1065 (1873)
Invested
$4.85
Value
$4.9
PnL
+$0.05
Record
49%
1668-1706 (3374)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
98.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.