Will Egypt win on 2026-11-13?

3 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 90¢ · $625 held · ends Nov 13

Yes90¢No10¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$624.55

Combined PnL

-$18.03

Smart Money Entry

87¢ → 89.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes90%

No11%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$265.97

Total Shares306

Combined PnL+$0.04

No6 traders

Total Value$254.22

Total Shares2,399

Combined PnL-$18.06

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Yesavg 87¢	$224.16	$224.16	+$0	35% 749-1385 (2134)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 11.6¢	$217.45	$196.96	-$20.5	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
SN SnakeBallARB<$100	Yesavg 87¢	$109.08	$104.35	-$4.73	48% 677-745 (1422)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 87¢	$57.07	$57.07	+$0
└ No leg	Noavg 11¢	$52.01	$47.28	-$4.73
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 12.1¢	$39.26	$34.19	-$5.07	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Yesavg 86¢	$31.78	$32.15	+$0.37	56% 307-245 (552)
poshposhCTR<$100	Noavg 11¢	$14.07	$12.79	-$1.28	46% 781-902 (1683)
WA waierma<$100	Yesavg 90¢	$10	$9.67	-$0.33	10% 11-100 (111)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$9	$9	+$0	36% 326-587 (913)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 8¢	$2.4	$1.05	+$0.65	53% 1030-921 (1951)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 50.5¢	$29.42	$0.23	+$8.14	39% 3479-5356 (8835)

LightParadox

Yes

Invested

$224.16

Value

$224.16

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$217.45

Value

$196.96

PnL

-$20.5

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

SnakeBallARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$109.08

Value

$104.35

PnL

-$4.73

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Both legs:

Yes$57.0787¢+$0

No$52.0111¢-$4.73

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$39.26

Value

$34.19

PnL

-$5.07

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.78

Value

$32.15

PnL

+$0.37

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

poshposhCTR<$100

Invested

$14.07

Value

$12.79

PnL

-$1.28

Record

46%

781-902 (1683)

waierma<$100

Yes

Invested

$10

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.33

Record

10%

11-100 (111)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

Value

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$2.4

Value

$1.05

PnL

+$0.65

Record

53%

1030-921 (1951)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$29.42

Value

$0.23

PnL

+$8.14

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 90%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 9 top traders (33%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-5 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

21h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.