Will DR Congo vs. Sierra Leone end in a draw?

7 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold No (70%) · No at 98¢ · $280 held · ended Nov 12

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 70%

Total Value

$279.57

Combined PnL

$2.91

Smart Money Entry

90¢ → 98.5¢

+9% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$273.81

Total Shares301

Combined PnL+$2.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$5.76

Total Shares40

Combined PnL-$0.07

No — 70%Yes — 30%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.9¢	$80.73	$81.21	+$0.48	40% 3254-4905 (8159)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Noavg 84.9¢	$61.76	$61.84	+$0.08	51% 2532-2437 (4969)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 85¢	$40.8	$40.8	+$0	33% 558-1109 (1667)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 89.8¢	$33.59	$34.78	+$1.18	27% 182-489 (671)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 91¢	$25.51	$26.49	+$0.98	44% 384-486 (870)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 85¢	$15.58	$15.58	+$0	41% 544-784 (1328)
poshposh<$100	Noavg 92¢	$12.85	$13.12	+$0.26	47% 522-581 (1103)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$2.44	$2.53	+$0.09	59% 3534-2417 (5951)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Yesavg 15.6¢	$1.99	$1.79	-$0.2	15% 29-166 (195)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.4	$1.45	+$0.05	52% 761-712 (1473)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$80.73

Value

$81.21

PnL

+$0.48

Record

40%

3254-4905 (8159)

Flaznorp<$100

Invested

$61.76

Value

$61.84

PnL

+$0.08

Record

51%

2532-2437 (4969)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$40.8

Value

$40.8

PnL

+$0

Record

33%

558-1109 (1667)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$33.59

Value

$34.78

PnL

+$1.18

Record

27%

182-489 (671)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$25.51

Value

$26.49

PnL

+$0.98

Record

44%

384-486 (870)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$15.58

Value

$15.58

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

544-784 (1328)

poshposh<$100

Invested

$12.85

Value

$13.12

PnL

+$0.26

Record

47%

522-581 (1103)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.44

Value

$2.53

PnL

+$0.09

Record

59%

3534-2417 (5951)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.99

Value

$1.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

15%

29-166 (195)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0.05

Record

52%

761-712 (1473)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 10 top traders (70%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.