Cameroon vs. Namibia: O/U 2.5

5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (56%) · Under at 93¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over8¢Under92¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 56%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$97.79

Smart Money Entry

72.1¢ → 92.5¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over8%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$565.99

Total Shares635

Combined PnL+$104.14

Over4 traders

Total Value$43.42

Total Shares492

Combined PnL-$6.34

Under — 56%Over — 44%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 70.3¢	$1.5K	$1.2K	-$309.42	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
└ Under leg	Underavg 58.5¢	$707.44	$870.67	+$163.22
└ Over leg	Overavg 70.3¢	$785.83	$313.19	-$472.64
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 48¢	$425.16	$669.94	+$244.78	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
└ Under leg	Underavg 15.8¢	$106.16	$483.86	+$377.7
└ Over leg	Overavg 48¢	$319	$186.08	-$132.92
DA dashattacker	Underavg 92¢	$382.38	$384.45	+$2.08	62% 239-149 (388)
LU LuckyLoo<$100	Underavg 16.4¢	$17.56	$94.77	+$77.21	35% 221-416 (637)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 49¢	$45.95	$65.12	+$19.17	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 8.5¢	$35.93	$31.62	-$4.31	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 55¢	$13.69	$17.92	+$4.23	54% 211-181 (392)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$5.63	$6.65	+$1.02	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 45¢	$5.69	$4.55	-$1.14	34% 592-1164 (1756)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 44¢	$2.28	$3.73	+$1.45	46% 485-564 (1049)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Overavg 36¢	$2.51	$0.59	-$1.92	32% 565-1192 (1757)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,493.27

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$309.42

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

Both legs:

Under$707.4458.5¢+$163.22

Over$785.8370.3¢-$472.64

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$425.16

Value

$669.94

PnL

+$244.78

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Both legs:

Under$106.1615.8¢+$377.7

Over$31948¢-$132.92

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$382.38

Value

$384.45

PnL

+$2.08

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

LuckyLoo<$100

Under

Invested

$17.56

Value

$94.77

PnL

+$77.21

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$45.95

Value

$65.12

PnL

+$19.17

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$35.93

Value

$31.62

PnL

-$4.31

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$13.69

Value

$17.92

PnL

+$4.23

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.63

Value

$6.65

PnL

+$1.02

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$5.69

Value

$4.55

PnL

-$1.14

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$2.28

Value

$3.73

PnL

+$1.45

Record

46%

485-564 (1049)

VenusianCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.51

Value

$0.59

PnL

-$1.92

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 9 top traders (56%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 87%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

57% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 57% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance93.8%

92.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.61

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.