Will Cameroon vs. Namibia end in a draw?

3 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (21%) · No at 99¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 21%

Total Value

$1.6K

Combined PnL

-$50.33

Smart Money Entry

94.3¢ → 98.6¢

+5% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares1,552

Combined PnL+$11.66

Yes11 traders

Total Value$14.14

Total Shares1,216

Combined PnL-$61.99

No — 21%Yes — 79%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 95.2¢	$1.4K	$1.4K	+$32.68	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 83.3¢	$138.36	$117.73	-$20.63	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 82¢	$5.43	$5.04	-$0.39	41% 562-807 (1369)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$3.88	$5.02	+$1.15	46% 443-515 (958)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.6¢	$11.67	$3.23	-$8.43	51% 2082-2008 (4090)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 6.5¢	$17.08	$2.64	-$14.44	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$29.25	$1.83	-$27.42	33% 556-1141 (1697)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$1.66	$0.33	-$1.33	53% 6207-5499 (11706)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 6.4¢	$1.6	$0.25	-$1.35	36% 209-370 (579)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.29	$0.22	-$3.07	26% 153-428 (581)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.71	$0.18	-$2.53	59% 3535-2417 (5952)
tradecraftCTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$2.34	$0.18	-$2.16	22% 178-642 (820)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.3¢	$0.85	$0.16	-$0.69	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$3.93	$0.1	-$1.71	52% 784-728 (1512)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$1,421.43

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$32.68

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

Flaznorp

Invested

$138.36

Value

$117.73

PnL

-$20.63

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$5.43

Value

$5.04

PnL

-$0.39

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.88

Value

$5.02

PnL

+$1.15

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

keeptheblueflagflyinghighCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.67

Value

$3.23

PnL

-$8.43

Record

51%

2082-2008 (4090)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.08

Value

$2.64

PnL

-$14.44

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.25

Value

$1.83

PnL

-$27.42

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.66

Value

$0.33

PnL

-$1.33

Record

53%

6207-5499 (11706)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$1.35

Record

36%

209-370 (579)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.29

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$3.07

Record

26%

153-428 (581)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.71

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.53

Record

59%

3535-2417 (5952)

tradecraftCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.34

Value

$0.18

PnL

-$2.16

Record

22%

178-642 (820)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.85

Value

$0.16

PnL

-$0.69

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.93

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.71

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 14 top traders (21%)11 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-46 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

21% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 88% · 8

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.6%

98.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.