Benin vs. Central African Republic: O/U 4.5

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$935.73

Smart Money Entry

67.7¢ → 99.5¢

+47% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over4 traders

Total Value$6.4K

Total Shares6,421

Combined PnL+$2.0K

Under6 traders

Total Value$26.82

Total Shares4,965

Combined PnL$-1.1K

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8	Overavg 77.6¢	$3.1K	$3.9K	+$862.86	50% 12-12 (24)
LI LightParadox	Overavg 49¢	$1.1K	$2.1K	+$1.1K	33% 585-1187 (1772)
WA WagerWizard	Overavg 71.1¢	$233.92	$327.11	+$93.18	17% 38-183 (221)
RN1CTR	Underavg 22.6¢	$778.2	$19.23	-$758.97	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
FL Flaznorp<$100	Overavg 10¢	$0.5	$5	+$4.5	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 21.5¢	$161.73	$3.76	-$157.97	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
LI LimousinCTR	Underavg 23.5¢	$133.44	$2.84	-$130.6	33% 563-1169 (1732)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 25¢	$23.33	$0.47	-$22.86	32% 565-1192 (1757)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Underavg 31¢	$23.56	$0.38	-$23.18	29% 206-510 (716)
poshposhCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$9.78	$0.14	-$9.64	48% 590-645 (1235)

0x127e88ca7f26b32be5ff2b005c5478cbd3833dd8

Over

Invested

$3,059.46

Value

$3.9K

PnL

+$862.86

Record

50%

12-12 (24)

LightParadox

Over

Invested

$1,056.02

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

WagerWizard

Over

Invested

$233.92

Value

$327.11

PnL

+$93.18

Record

17%

38-183 (221)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$778.2

Value

$19.23

PnL

-$758.97

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Flaznorp<$100

Over

Invested

$0.5

Value

PnL

+$4.5

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$161.73

Value

$3.76

PnL

-$157.97

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

LimousinCTR

Under

Invested

$133.44

Value

$2.84

PnL

-$130.6

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.33

Value

$0.47

PnL

-$22.86

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$23.56

Value

$0.38

PnL

-$23.18

Record

29%

206-510 (716)

poshposhCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.78

Value

$0.14

PnL

-$9.64

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 95%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.