Will Central African Republic win on 2026-11-12?

9 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 100¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$2.6K

Combined PnL

-$24.73

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 99.6¢

+9% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$2.5K

Total Shares2,539

Combined PnL+$207.63

Yes9 traders

Total Value$48.63

Total Shares2,224

Combined PnL-$232.36

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 17

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI LightParadox	Noavg 87¢	$1.1K	$1.2K	+$151.94	33% 556-1141 (1697)
WA WagerWizard	Noavg 92.1¢	$429.14	$463.62	+$34.49	17% 36-181 (217)
RN1	Noavg 99.3¢	$298.86	$297.12	-$1.74	56% 4503-3474 (7977)
RO Rocky31	Noavg 92¢	$218.98	$236.95	+$17.97	31% 54-120 (174)
AR ARocky33	Noavg 96¢	$192	$198	+$6	78% 720-203 (923)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$66.97	$64.7	-$2.27	46% 443-515 (958)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.1¢	$66.91	$29.72	-$37.19	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 99¢	$23.59	$23.59	+$0	32% 542-1134 (1676)
E4 e46m3<$100	Noavg 97.4¢	$18.52	$18.93	+$0.41	43% 2584-3425 (6009)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	Noavg 94¢	$15.82	$16.66	+$0.84	55% 89-74 (163)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 12.9¢	$175.2	$13.62	-$161.58	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
SL SlickRick123CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.6¢	$24.08	$3.18	-$20.91	27% 185-494 (679)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 7.8¢	$8.49	$1.09	-$7.41	47% 549-607 (1156)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.38	$0.41	-$1.97	33% 539-1116 (1655)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$1.67	$0.31	-$1.36	41% 562-807 (1369)
0X 0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100	Yesavg 7.5¢	$1.5	$0.2	-$1.3	41% 265-378 (643)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 13¢	$8.75	$0.05	-$0.2	52% 784-728 (1512)
LR lryyyCTR<$100	Yesavg 10¢	$0.5	$0.05	-$0.45	44% 405-509 (914)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,053.28

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$151.94

Record

33%

556-1141 (1697)

WagerWizard

Invested

$429.14

Value

$463.62

PnL

+$34.49

Record

17%

36-181 (217)

RN1

Invested

$298.86

Value

$297.12

PnL

-$1.74

Record

56%

4503-3474 (7977)

Rocky31

Invested

$218.98

Value

$236.95

PnL

+$17.97

Record

31%

54-120 (174)

ARocky33

Invested

$192

Value

$198

PnL

+$6

Record

78%

720-203 (923)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$66.97

Value

$64.7

PnL

-$2.27

Record

46%

443-515 (958)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$66.91

Value

$29.72

PnL

-$37.19

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$23.59

Value

$23.59

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

542-1134 (1676)

e46m3<$100

Invested

$18.52

Value

$18.93

PnL

+$0.41

Record

43%

2584-3425 (6009)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

Invested

$15.82

Value

$16.66

PnL

+$0.84

Record

55%

89-74 (163)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$175.2

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$161.58

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

SlickRick123CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$24.08

Value

$3.18

PnL

-$20.91

Record

27%

185-494 (679)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.49

Value

$1.09

PnL

-$7.41

Record

47%

549-607 (1156)

LimousinCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.38

Value

$0.41

PnL

-$1.97

Record

33%

539-1116 (1655)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.67

Value

$0.31

PnL

-$1.36

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

0xa85B3359D5e0BDCB925F6A2B94ddfBF6d403eb0CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.5

Value

$0.2

PnL

-$1.3

Record

41%

265-378 (643)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.75

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.2

Record

52%

784-728 (1512)

lryyyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.5

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$0.45

Record

44%

405-509 (914)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 18 top traders (50%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-39 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 75%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

44% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 55% · 11

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 53% · 17

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.