Will Benin win on 2026-11-12?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12

Yes62¢No38¢Ends Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

$4.68

Smart Money Entry

60.6¢ → 61.5¢

+2% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes62%

No39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$786.92

Total Shares1,281

Combined PnL+$11.27

No6 traders

Total Value$230.23

Total Shares556

Combined PnL-$6.59

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
rayvanmechelen	Yesavg 60.6¢	$722.35	$733.54	+$11.19	5% 14-272 (286)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 40¢	$139.76	$135.39	-$4.37	51% 2503-2397 (4900)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Noavg 40¢	$75.33	$72.51	-$2.82	55% 1636-1337 (2973)
VE Venusian<$100	Yesavg 61¢	$37.67	$37.4	-$0.27	32% 528-1110 (1638)
LI Limousin<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$12.63	$12.95	+$0.32	32% 522-1096 (1618)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 39.3¢	$8.85	$8.85	+$0	41% 533-763 (1296)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Noavg 37.4¢	$18.7	$7.71	+$1	52% 737-689 (1426)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 41¢	$4.48	$4.2	-$0.27	53% 182-164 (346)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Yesavg 60¢	$3	$3.03	+$0.03	50% 1206-1230 (2436)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 42¢	$1.69	$1.57	-$0.12	40% 3240-4885 (8125)

rayvanmechelen

Yes

Invested

$722.35

Value

$733.54

PnL

+$11.19

Record

14-272 (286)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$139.76

Value

$135.39

PnL

-$4.37

Record

51%

2503-2397 (4900)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Invested

$75.33

Value

$72.51

PnL

-$2.82

Record

55%

1636-1337 (2973)

Venusian<$100

Yes

Invested

$37.67

Value

$37.4

PnL

-$0.27

Record

32%

528-1110 (1638)

Limousin<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.63

Value

$12.95

PnL

+$0.32

Record

32%

522-1096 (1618)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.85

Value

$8.85

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

533-763 (1296)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Invested

$18.7

Value

$7.71

PnL

+$1

Record

52%

737-689 (1426)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$4.48

Value

$4.2

PnL

-$0.27

Record

53%

182-164 (346)

ferdinand2<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$3.03

PnL

+$0.03

Record

50%

1206-1230 (2436)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$1.69

Value

$1.57

PnL

-$0.12

Record

40%

3240-4885 (8125)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 62%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

7h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.