Will South Sudan win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 98¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Yes2¢No98¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 86%

Total Value

$12.0K

Combined PnL

-$0.91

Smart Money Entry

97.5¢ → 98.5¢

+1% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes2%

No98%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares12,270

Combined PnL-$1.02

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.12

Total Shares366

Combined PnL+$0.11

No — 86%Yes — 14%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
VE Venusian	Noavg 97.6¢	$7.4K	$7.3K	-$11.22	37% 991-1715 (2706)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 97.5¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$0.21	36% 477-850 (1327)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 97.3¢	$785.07	$790.4	+$5.33	47% 936-1036 (1972)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 97.3¢	$730.64	$732.12	+$1.48	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 97¢	$506.86	$509.48	+$2.61	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
LI Limousin	Noavg 97.4¢	$272.31	$272.55	+$0.24	36% 975-1701 (2676)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 97.7¢	$262.42	$261.76	-$0.66	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 97.5¢	$227.17	$205.86	+$0.18	54% 1417-1228 (2645)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Noavg 96.8¢	$122.04	$122.89	+$0.85	50% 2543-2505 (5048)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 97.7¢	$100	$99.79	-$0.2	39% 3675-5843 (9518)
GC GC-P<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$80.32	$80.23	-$0.08	37% 367-618 (985)
Secondhandvinyl<$100	Noavg 97.3¢	$38.91	$39.15	+$0.24	76% 257-83 (340)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.6¢	$4.01	$5.24	+$1.23	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.8¢	$6	$4.88	-$1.12	46% 2743-3256 (5999)

Venusian

Invested

$7,359.49

Value

$7.3K

PnL

-$11.22

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$1,504.57

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$0.21

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

SnakeBall

Invested

$785.07

Value

$790.4

PnL

+$5.33

Record

47%

936-1036 (1972)

LightParadox

Invested

$730.64

Value

$732.12

PnL

+$1.48

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$506.86

Value

$509.48

PnL

+$2.61

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

Limousin

Invested

$272.31

Value

$272.55

PnL

+$0.24

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

MadridTime

Invested

$262.42

Value

$261.76

PnL

-$0.66

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$227.17

Value

$205.86

PnL

+$0.18

Record

54%

1417-1228 (2645)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Invested

$122.04

Value

$122.89

PnL

+$0.85

Record

50%

2543-2505 (5048)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$99.79

PnL

-$0.2

Record

39%

3675-5843 (9518)

GC-P<$100

Invested

$80.32

Value

$80.23

PnL

-$0.08

Record

37%

367-618 (985)

Secondhandvinyl<$100

Invested

$38.91

Value

$39.15

PnL

+$0.24

Record

76%

257-83 (340)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.01

Value

$5.24

PnL

+$1.23

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.88

PnL

-$1.12

Record

46%

2743-3256 (5999)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 14 top traders (86%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+2 pts consensus

Breadth

9 traders

Top 2 hold 68%

Freshness

Fresh

5h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

90% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 88% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 89% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.5%

98.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.