Spread: Angola (-1.5)

6 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold South Sudan (60%) · South Sudan at 57¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Angola43¢South Sudan57¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

South Sudan

Consensus Traders

South Sudan 60%

Total Value

$3.7K

Combined PnL

$158.51

Smart Money Entry

52.8¢ → 57¢

+8% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralSouth Sudan at 57%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

South Sudan

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Angola43%

South Sudan57%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

South Sudan6 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares3,742

Combined PnL+$229.13

Angola4 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares3,420

Combined PnL-$70.62

South Sudan — 60%Angola — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	South Sudanavg 54.8¢	$1.8K	$1.9K	+$139.35	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
JA JabJabichCTR	Angolaavg 44¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$12.5	32% 31-67 (98)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Angolaavg 43¢	$315.84	$304.27	-$11.57	53% 2166-1916 (4082)
LI LightParadox	South Sudanavg 32¢	$86.4	$159.3	+$72.9	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
VeryLucky888CTR	Angolaavg 68¢	$161.63	$83	-$53	54% 1422-1229 (2651)
FE ferdinand2<$100	South Sudanavg 56¢	$61.25	$64.53	+$3.28	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Angolaavg 68¢	$47.6	$29.05	-$18.55	55% 502-403 (905)
0X 0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100	South Sudanavg 35¢	$13.19	$19.97	+$6.78	51% 163-158 (321)
VE Venusian<$100	South Sudanavg 35¢	$7	$11.7	+$4.7	37% 996-1715 (2711)
MA MadridTime<$100	South Sudanavg 32¢	$2.56	$4.68	+$2.12	38% 1015-1688 (2703)

Flaznorp

South Sudan

Invested

$1,805.75

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$139.35

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

JabJabichCTR

Angola

Invested

$1,099.98

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$12.5

Record

32%

31-67 (98)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Angola

Invested

$315.84

Value

$304.27

PnL

-$11.57

Record

53%

2166-1916 (4082)

LightParadox

South Sudan

Invested

$86.4

Value

$159.3

PnL

+$72.9

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

VeryLucky888CTR

Angola

Invested

$161.63

Value

$83

PnL

-$53

Record

54%

1422-1229 (2651)

ferdinand2<$100

South Sudan

Invested

$61.25

Value

$64.53

PnL

+$3.28

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Angola

Invested

$47.6

Value

$29.05

PnL

-$18.55

Record

55%

502-403 (905)

0x6b25c5c4d1e681d2203297803793ad8c732b7a69<$100

South Sudan

Invested

$13.19

Value

$19.97

PnL

+$6.78

Record

51%

163-158 (321)

Venusian<$100

South Sudan

Invested

Value

$11.7

PnL

+$4.7

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

MadridTime<$100

South Sudan

Invested

$2.56

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$2.12

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

Research grade

NeutralSouth Sudan at 57%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

South Sudan

6 of 10 top traders (60%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that South Sudan wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance59.2%

57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$68.87

Max Loss

-$100.00

168.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.