Will Algeria vs. Togo end in a draw?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 80¢ · $571 held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$570.69
$28.72
84.9¢ → 79.5¢
-6% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 80%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 85¢ | $382.71 | $389.69 | +$6.98 | 53% 2162-1905 (4067) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Yesavg 17.2¢ | $109.11 | $129.91 | +$20.81 | 49% 3959-4107 (8066) |
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $43.05 | $44.33 | +$1.28 | 50% 2543-2505 (5048) |
88 0x882c...5d07CTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $6 | $5.4 | -$0.6 | 76% 257-83 (340) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $2.6 | $1.35 | +$0.25 | 54% 1417-1228 (2645) |
Invested
$382.71
Value
$389.69
PnL
+$6.98
Record
53%
2162-1905 (4067)
Invested
$109.11
Value
$129.91
PnL
+$20.81
Record
49%
3959-4107 (8066)
Invested
$43.05
Value
$44.33
PnL
+$1.28
Record
50%
2543-2505 (5048)
Invested
$6
Value
$5.4
PnL
-$0.6
Record
76%
257-83 (340)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.6
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.25
Record
54%
1417-1228 (2645)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.