Pakhtakor vs. Al Nassr Club: O/U 3.5

9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold Over (75%) · Over at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 2

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Mon, Nov 2, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 75%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.1K

Combined PnL

$728.08

Smart Money Entry

56.4¢ → 100¢

+77% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over9 traders

Total Value$6.8K

Total Shares7,542

Combined PnL+$579.31

Under3 traders

Total Value$2.1K

Total Shares4,380

Combined PnL+$148.77

Over — 75%Under — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Overavg 36.9¢	$2.7K	$3.1K	+$395.88	50% 26430-26259 (52689)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.9¢	$1.9K	$1.8K	-$96.78
└ Under leg	Underavg 40.6¢	$820.19	$1.3K	+$492.66
FL Flaznorp	Overavg 54.1¢	$2.1K	$2.6K	+$529.46	51% 17621-16621 (34242)
RN1	Overavg 46.2¢	$2.0K	$2.5K	+$77.02	54% 58154-50376 (108530)
HONGKONGPEACHCTR	Underavg 60¢	$1.9K	$2.1K	+$158.07	50% 324-329 (653)
NE Next-Licensing	Overavg 99¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	+$5.5	99% 2461-33 (2494)
us391	Overavg 40¢	$397.18	$347.54	-$49.65	51% 1748-1710 (3458)
CI cigarettes	Overavg 67.2¢	$124.6	$150.29	+$25.7	56% 18394-14718 (33112)
FO fooooolARB<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$146.37	$143.52	-$2.85	50% 11455-11293 (22748)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.5¢	$113.65	$108.92	-$4.73
└ Under leg	Underavg 61.5¢	$32.72	$34.6	+$1.88
FE ferdinand2<$100	Overavg 38¢	$41.66	$40.66	-$1.01	51% 1005-965 (1970)
HRTrading<$100	Overavg 48.3¢	$8.5	$10.34	+$1.84	53% 6378-5764 (12142)
LA LaarsY<$100	Overavg 75¢	$18.75	$8.75	-$10	50% 3456-3391 (6847)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 91¢	$4.55	$5	+$0.45	35% 16978-31455 (48433)
DI dips.CTR<$100	Underavg 1.3¢	$12.03	$4.58	-$7.45	46% 7320-8504 (15824)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 1.1¢	$3.37	$1.52	-$1.85	48% 3291-3584 (6875)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,689.18

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$395.88

Record

50%

26430-26259 (52689)

Both legs:

Over$1,868.9936.9¢-$96.78

Under$820.1940.6¢+$492.66

Flaznorp

Over

Invested

$2,101.35

Value

$2.6K

PnL

+$529.46

Record

51%

17621-16621 (34242)

RN1

Over

Invested

$2,010.5

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$77.02

Record

54%

58154-50376 (108530)

HONGKONGPEACHCTR

Under

Invested

$1,896.85

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$158.07

Record

50%

324-329 (653)

Next-Licensing

Over

Invested

$1,089

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$5.5

Record

99%

2461-33 (2494)

us391

Over

Invested

$397.18

Value

$347.54

PnL

-$49.65

Record

51%

1748-1710 (3458)

cigarettes

Over

Invested

$124.6

Value

$150.29

PnL

+$25.7

Record

56%

18394-14718 (33112)

fooooolARB<$100

Over

Invested

$146.37

Value

$143.52

PnL

-$2.85

Record

50%

11455-11293 (22748)

Both legs:

Over$113.6536.5¢-$4.73

Under$32.7261.5¢+$1.88

ferdinand2<$100

Over

Invested

$41.66

Value

$40.66

PnL

-$1.01

Record

51%

1005-965 (1970)

HRTrading<$100

Over

Invested

$8.5

Value

$10.34

PnL

+$1.84

Record

53%

6378-5764 (12142)

LaarsY<$100

Over

Invested

$18.75

Value

$8.75

PnL

-$10

Record

50%

3456-3391 (6847)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$4.55

Value

PnL

+$0.45

Record

35%

16978-31455 (48433)

dips.CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$12.03

Value

$4.58

PnL

-$7.45

Record

46%

7320-8504 (15824)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.37

Value

$1.52

PnL

-$1.85

Record

48%

3291-3584 (6875)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Over

9 of 12 top traders (75%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.