Al Hilal SFC vs. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai: 1st Half O/U 2.5
3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Under (43%) · Under at 66¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 3
⚖️
Neutral
Under
7
Under 43%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$443.86
93¢ → 65.5¢
-30% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 7 top traders (43%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
43% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 93¢ | $2.0K | $1.4K | -$589.74 | 73% 2864-1079 (3943) |
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Underavg 77.7¢ | $364.86 | $762.7 | +$397.84 | 51% 23562-22316 (45878) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 7.6¢ | $123.44 | $559.18 | +$435.74 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 77.7¢ | $241.42 | $203.52 | -$37.9 | |
LI LightParadoxCTR | Overavg 7.3¢ | $23.5 | $110.65 | +$87.16 | 53% 1067-963 (2030) |
 RN1CTR<$100 | Overavg 7.2¢ | $19.78 | $95.12 | +$75.34 | 53% 59264-51568 (110832) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $14.64 | $18.71 | +$4.07 | 57% 12035-9120 (21155) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 82¢ | $8.66 | $6.91 | -$1.74 | 55% 1292-1076 (2368) |
SN SnakeBall<$100 | Underavg 67¢ | $2.03 | $1.98 | -$0.05 | 50% 35795-35262 (71057) |
 alpheclabs2CTR<$100 | Overavg 27¢ | $18.9 | — | -$18.9 | 47% 1126-1275 (2401) |
Invested
$1,992.3
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$589.74
Record
73%
2864-1079 (3943)
Invested
$364.86
Value
$762.7
PnL
+$397.84
Record
51%
23562-22316 (45878)
Both legs:
Invested
$23.5
Value
$110.65
PnL
+$87.16
Record
53%
1067-963 (2030)
RN1CTR<$100Invested
$19.78
Value
$95.12
PnL
+$75.34
Record
53%
59264-51568 (110832)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$14.64
Value
$18.71
PnL
+$4.07
Record
57%
12035-9120 (21155)
Invested
$8.66
Value
$6.91
PnL
-$1.74
Record
55%
1292-1076 (2368)
Invested
$2.03
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.05
Record
50%
35795-35262 (71057)
alpheclabs2CTR<$100Invested
$18.9
Value
—
PnL
-$18.9
Record
47%
1126-1275 (2401)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.