Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 9 of 9 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Kashima Antlers win on 2026-11-04?

9 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $3K held · ends Nov 4

Yes57¢No43¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 100%

Total Value

$3.0K

Combined PnL

-$194.69

Smart Money Entry

46.4¢ → 42.5¢

-8% since entry · 9 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes57%

No43%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No9 traders

Total Value$3.0K

Total Shares6,779

Combined PnL-$194.69

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46¢	$1.4K	$1.3K	-$98.01	51% 24004-22756 (46760)
VeryLucky888CTR	Noavg 50¢	$643.85	$494.75	-$101.59	58% 45382-32888 (78270)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 45.5¢	$442.77	$457.41	+$14.64	46% 1299-1520 (2819)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 45¢	$377.68	$394.05	+$16.37	47% 1324-1519 (2843)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Noavg 45.9¢	$254.34	$235.66	-$18.68	50% 20647-20936 (41583)
RN1CTR	Noavg 43.2¢	$121.01	$116.2	-$4.81	53% 60020-52387 (112407)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Noavg 53.2¢	$18.64	$16.45	-$2.19	35% 17800-33165 (50965)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Noavg 53.5¢	$6.53	$6.23	-$0.29	51% 7458-7190 (14648)
0X 0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100	Noavg 48.2¢	$5.12	$4.99	-$0.13	34% 1146-2273 (3419)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,351.94

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$98.01

Record

51%

24004-22756 (46760)

VeryLucky888CTR

Invested

$643.85

Value

$494.75

PnL

-$101.59

Record

58%

45382-32888 (78270)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$442.77

Value

$457.41

PnL

+$14.64

Record

46%

1299-1520 (2819)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$377.68

Value

$394.05

PnL

+$16.37

Record

47%

1324-1519 (2843)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Invested

$254.34

Value

$235.66

PnL

-$18.68

Record

50%

20647-20936 (41583)

RN1CTR

Invested

$121.01

Value

$116.2

PnL

-$4.81

Record

53%

60020-52387 (112407)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Invested

$18.64

Value

$16.45

PnL

-$2.19

Record

35%

17800-33165 (50965)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Invested

$6.53

Value

$6.23

PnL

-$0.29

Record

51%

7458-7190 (14648)

0x5e83c9db1593a9113fffa791797cf9655b383bb7CTR<$100

Invested

$5.12

Value

$4.99

PnL

-$0.13

Record

34%

1146-2273 (3419)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 43%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

9 of 9 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 6

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance44.7%

42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$123.57

Max Loss

-$100.00

223.6

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.