PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
taxmoneyNomorepredictprimmAhpo
Record (consensus markets)no settled market59% (129–90, n=219)49% (768–785, n=1553)95% (1530–85, n=1615)
Consensus PnL—-$10K$3.4M$124K
Tracked asPM monthly #897PM monthly #942PM monthly #23was PM monthly #861
Sides with the consensus0% (0 of 2 open)100% (3 of 3 open)0% (0 of 2 open)100% (13 of 13 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic—NBA −1 pts, n=122——
Settled positions, side won—53% of 255 at avg 55¢, ROI −3%99% of 737 at avg 50¢, ROI +51%92% of 1836 at avg 88¢, ROI +1%
Entries under 30¢—26% (won 8% of 66)5% (won 93% of 40)5% (won 14% of 97)
Entries 30–50¢—16% (won 38% of 42)41% (won 99% of 303)3% (won 60% of 55)
Entries 50–70¢—18% (won 57% of 47)49% (won 99% of 362)6% (won 67% of 102)
Entries 70¢ and up—39% (won 88% of 100)4% (won 100% of 32)86% (won 99% of 1582)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.