← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| stuttig | tradecraft | CentralCasting | SmallFishInWhaleStomach | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 49% (2015–2122, n=4137) | 92% (45–4, n=49) | 89% (122–15, n=137) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $912K | $450K | $96K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #491 | PM monthly #293 | was PM monthly #439 | PM monthly #928 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 38% (3 of 8 open) | no open consensus position | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics | none with 10+ settled |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=44 |
| Settled positions, side won | 100% of 1 at avg 77¢, ROI +23% | 57% of 2284 at avg 50¢, ROI +4% | 95% of 44 at avg 58¢, ROI +26% | 86% of 155 at avg 80¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 0% | 31% (won 10% of 707) | 0% | 8% (won 8% of 13) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 0% | 18% (won 47% of 401) | 57% (won 96% of 25) | 8% (won 62% of 13) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 0% | 19% (won 77% of 426) | 18% (won 100% of 8) | 8% (won 69% of 13) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 100% (won 100% of 1) | 33% (won 96% of 750) | 25% (won 91% of 11) | 75% (won 100% of 116) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.