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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| operationcastle | LuckyWin | NiNo999 | BreakTheBank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (693–98, n=791) | 88% (488–65, n=553) | 67% (469–231, n=700) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $29K | $9.7M | $10.2M |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #916 | was PM monthly #579 | was PM monthly #985 | PM monthly #1 |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 80% (4 of 5 open) | no open consensus position | 76% (53 of 70 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
| ||
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −7 pts, n=48 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 88% of 738 at avg 88¢, ROI 0% | 90% of 502 at avg 50¢, ROI +42% | 97% of 471 at avg 53¢, ROI +40% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 7% (won 8% of 48) | 7% (won 81% of 37) | 11% (won 87% of 52) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 4% (won 44% of 32) | 39% (won 85% of 197) | 34% (won 98% of 162) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 7% (won 56% of 48) | 49% (won 94% of 244) | 33% (won 99% of 154) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 83% (won 99% of 610) | 5% (won 96% of 24) | 22% (won 100% of 103) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
0 on the same side, 2 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | operationcastle | LuckyWin | NiNo999 | BreakTheBank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? opposite sides · consensus No | — | Yes $2 | — | No $36K |
| Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? opposite sides · consensus Yes | — | Yes $1 | — | No $20K |