← Traders
Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| operationcastle | bamesjond | PatienceCapital | MEPP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 88% (130–18, n=148) | 47% (40–46, n=86) | 65% (345–184, n=529) |
| Consensus PnL | — | -$572K | $475K | $557K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #896 | Hand-picked | was PM monthly #269 | was PM monthly #959 + pinned |
| Sides with the consensus | no open consensus position | 100% (4 of 4 open) | no open consensus position | 79% (65 of 82 open) |
| Strongest topics | not computed yet |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | — | — | Entertainment −18 pts, n=11 |
| Settled positions, side won | — | 95% of 1059 at avg 92¢, ROI +2% | 84% of 44 at avg 43¢, ROI +45% | 66% of 767 at avg 62¢, ROI +4% |
| Entries under 30¢ | — | 5% (won 12% of 52) | 14% (won 33% of 6) | 20% (won 14% of 151) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | — | 1% (won 63% of 8) | 39% (won 88% of 17) | 11% (won 34% of 82) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | — | 3% (won 77% of 30) | 48% (won 95% of 21) | 19% (won 66% of 144) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | — | 92% (won 100% of 969) | 0% | 51% (won 93% of 390) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | operationcastle | bamesjond | PatienceCapital | MEPP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? same side · consensus No | — | No $6.8K | — | No $6.0K |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? same side · consensus No | — | No $1.2K | — | No $98 |