PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
nz7Kev690x351f51e4a6e48d36c79ada2e0ed3fe43929db0d8NiceDuckBro
Record (consensus markets)no settled market58% (622–445, n=1067)64% (93–52, n=145)65% (161–87, n=248)
Consensus PnL—$61K$34K-$13K
Tracked asPM monthly #929was PM monthly #845was PM monthly #991Hand-picked
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position100% (1 of 1 open)no open consensus position64% (9 of 14 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • MLB +35 pts n=132, ROI +39%
  • NHL +32 pts n=52, ROI +32%
  • Soccer +28 pts n=127, ROI +28%
Weakest topic——Esports −3 pts, n=47Mentions −7 pts, n=19
Settled positions, side won—82% of 847 at avg 59¢, ROI +22%63% of 129 at avg 61¢, ROI +9%65% of 326 at avg 65¢, ROI −1%
Entries under 30¢—9% (won 37% of 76)7% (won 33% of 9)13% (won 2% of 43)
Entries 30–50¢—18% (won 72% of 156)23% (won 40% of 30)14% (won 33% of 45)
Entries 50–70¢—42% (won 89% of 358)33% (won 60% of 43)21% (won 69% of 67)
Entries 70¢ and up—30% (won 91% of 257)36% (won 85% of 47)52% (won 88% of 171)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.