PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
liriks0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-17706582427100xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941zhuz632
Record (consensus markets)no settled market49% (1212–1269, n=2481)89% (48–6, n=54)59% (241–170, n=411)
Consensus PnL—$60K-$54K$1.0M
Tracked asPM monthly #979Hand-pickedHand-pickedPM monthly #994
Sides with the consensusno open consensus position17% (2 of 12 open)93% (13 of 14 open)50% (1 of 2 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yet
  • Tech +9 pts n=10, ROI +8%
  • Soccer +47 pts n=238, ROI +47%
Weakest topic—Politics −6 pts, n=74Geopolitics −1 pts, n=96—
Settled positions, side won—55% of 1049 at avg 50¢, ROI +8%84% of 190 at avg 84¢, ROI −2%99% of 238 at avg 52¢, ROI +47%
Entries under 30¢—24% (won 19% of 254)6% (won 8% of 12)0% (won 100% of 1)
Entries 30–50¢—23% (won 40% of 241)3% (won 40% of 5)34% (won 100% of 82)
Entries 50–70¢—29% (won 70% of 304)9% (won 56% of 18)64% (won 99% of 152)
Entries 70¢ and up—24% (won 89% of 250)82% (won 95% of 155)1% (won 100% of 3)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

Marketliriks0x75d1B199a96801338e67a6eFAa35C0028eA87A5F-17706582427100xbe044D601FBe89c9E87eACFa57d813A31F783C60-1767997097941zhuz632
US strike on Mexico by December 31?
opposite sides · consensus No
—Yes $207No $487—