PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market60% (841–571, n=1412)60% (3–2, n=5)66% (1624–844, n=2468)
Consensus PnL—$68K$472-$6.7K
Tracked asPM monthly #957was PM monthly #636was PM monthly #959was PM monthly #833
Sides with the consensus100% (3 of 3 open)no open consensus positionno open consensus position67% (8 of 12 open)
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
  • MLB +43 pts n=44, ROI +45%
  • NFL +36 pts n=79, ROI +28%
  • Tennis +33 pts n=199, ROI +31%
Weakest topic—NFL −2 pts, n=25——
Settled positions, side won—59% of 1394 at avg 58¢, ROI +2%0% of 3 at avg 2¢, ROI +79%100% of 1444 at avg 69¢, ROI +32%
Entries under 30¢—5% (won 24% of 66)100% (won 0% of 3)1% (won 100% of 16)
Entries 30–50¢—29% (won 45% of 403)0%9% (won 100% of 133)
Entries 50–70¢—41% (won 60% of 572)0%38% (won 100% of 552)
Entries 70¢ and up—25% (won 81% of 353)0%51% (won 100% of 743)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.