PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
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Record (consensus markets)no settled market70% (77–33, n=110)49% (136–139, n=275)49% (324–338, n=662)
Consensus PnL—$11K$13K-$102K
Tracked aswas PM monthly #707was PM monthly #963was PM monthly #844was PM monthly #917
Sides with the consensusno open consensus positionno open consensus positionno open consensus positionno open consensus position
Strongest topicsnot computed yetnone with 10+ settled
Weakest topic————
Settled positions, side won—66% of 87 at avg 65¢, ROI +5%96% of 92 at avg 54¢, ROI +40%83% of 402 at avg 56¢, ROI +28%
Entries under 30¢—2% (won 50% of 2)12% (won 91% of 11)2% (won 44% of 9)
Entries 30–50¢—8% (won 43% of 7)15% (won 93% of 14)23% (won 75% of 91)
Entries 50–70¢—48% (won 69% of 42)65% (won 97% of 60)66% (won 86% of 264)
Entries 70¢ and up—41% (won 67% of 36)8% (won 100% of 7)9% (won 89% of 38)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.