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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
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| mombil | LuckyWin | SmallFishInWhaleStomach | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | 59% (1079–754, n=1833) | 88% (726–102, n=828) | 89% (124–15, n=139) |
| Consensus PnL | $498K | $30K | $97K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #857 + pinned | was PM monthly #579 | PM monthly #961 |
| Sides with the consensus | 70% (51 of 73 open) | 67% (4 of 6 open) | 100% (2 of 2 open) |
| Strongest topics |
|
| |
| Weakest topic | — | NBA −7 pts, n=48 | Geopolitics −1 pts, n=45 |
| Settled positions, side won | 46% of 2092 at avg 41¢, ROI +2% | 88% of 770 at avg 88¢, ROI 0% | 86% of 157 at avg 80¢, ROI +3% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 48% (won 10% of 1013) | 7% (won 8% of 51) | 8% (won 8% of 13) |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 12% (won 52% of 247) | 4% (won 42% of 33) | 8% (won 62% of 13) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 12% (won 71% of 252) | 6% (won 55% of 49) | 9% (won 64% of 14) |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 28% (won 95% of 580) | 83% (won 99% of 637) | 75% (won 100% of 117) |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
1 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | mombil | LuckyWin | SmallFishInWhaleStomach |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? opposite sides · consensus No | No $1 | Yes $1 | — |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? same side · consensus Yes | — | Yes $1 | Yes $1.9K |