PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
mombilLuckyWinbeautifulobsession
Record (consensus markets)59% (1079–754, n=1833)88% (726–102, n=828)67% (87–43, n=130)
Consensus PnL$498K$30K$100K
Tracked asPM monthly #857 + pinnedwas PM monthly #579PM monthly #316
Sides with the consensus70% (51 of 73 open)67% (4 of 6 open)100% (1 of 1 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topic—NBA −7 pts, n=48—
Settled positions, side won46% of 2092 at avg 41¢, ROI +2%88% of 770 at avg 88¢, ROI 0%68% of 130 at avg 61¢, ROI +11%
Entries under 30¢48% (won 10% of 1013)7% (won 8% of 51)3% (won 0% of 4)
Entries 30–50¢12% (won 52% of 247)4% (won 42% of 33)22% (won 43% of 28)
Entries 50–70¢12% (won 71% of 252)6% (won 55% of 49)41% (won 68% of 53)
Entries 70¢ and up28% (won 95% of 580)83% (won 99% of 637)35% (won 89% of 45)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

0 on the same side, 1 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketmombilLuckyWinbeautifulobsession
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
opposite sides · consensus No
No $1Yes $1—