PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
franeotbyoyoyoyoerSmallFishInWhaleStomachLuckyWin
Record (consensus markets)65% (48–26, n=74)57% (48–36, n=84)89% (124–15, n=139)88% (726–102, n=828)
Consensus PnL$24K$8.1K$97K$30K
Tracked asHand-pickedwas PM monthly #359PM monthly #961was PM monthly #579
Sides with the consensus33% (1 of 3 open)no open consensus position100% (2 of 2 open)71% (5 of 7 open)
Strongest topics
  • NFL +4 pts n=33, ROI +5%
Weakest topic——Geopolitics −1 pts, n=45NBA −7 pts, n=48
Settled positions, side won97% of 147 at avg 67¢, ROI +24%58% of 81 at avg 54¢, ROI +8%86% of 157 at avg 80¢, ROI +3%88% of 770 at avg 88¢, ROI 0%
Entries under 30¢7% (won 70% of 10)17% (won 14% of 14)8% (won 8% of 13)7% (won 8% of 51)
Entries 30–50¢12% (won 100% of 17)23% (won 47% of 19)8% (won 62% of 13)4% (won 42% of 33)
Entries 50–70¢31% (won 98% of 45)26% (won 71% of 21)9% (won 64% of 14)6% (won 55% of 49)
Entries 70¢ and up51% (won 100% of 75)33% (won 78% of 27)75% (won 100% of 117)83% (won 99% of 637)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

1 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.

MarketfraneotbyoyoyoyoerSmallFishInWhaleStomachLuckyWin
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
same side · consensus Yes
——Yes $1.9KYes $1