PolyConsensus
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Compare traders

Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.

Traders side by side
BlackPeopleDontRecycletiger105beheo123Kangta8585
Record (consensus markets)no settled market65% (96–51, n=147)66% (29–15, n=44)67% (1055–511, n=1566)
Consensus PnL—$39K$44K$350K
Tracked asPM monthly #750was PM monthly #985was PM monthly #982was PM monthly #863
Sides with the consensus83% (5 of 6 open)no open consensus position0% (0 of 3 open)100% (2 of 2 open)
Strongest topics
Weakest topicGeopolitics −8 pts, n=55——College Basketball −4 pts, n=55
Settled positions, side won80% of 166 at avg 80¢, ROI +1%100% of 95 at avg 61¢, ROI +34%86% of 28 at avg 56¢, ROI +33%67% of 2102 at avg 58¢, ROI +8%
Entries under 30¢3% (won 0% of 5)1% (won 100% of 1)18% (won 40% of 5)4% (won 26% of 81)
Entries 30–50¢5% (won 25% of 8)24% (won 100% of 23)14% (won 100% of 4)24% (won 53% of 507)
Entries 50–70¢14% (won 54% of 24)51% (won 100% of 48)36% (won 100% of 10)50% (won 70% of 1052)
Entries 70¢ and up78% (won 91% of 129)24% (won 100% of 23)32% (won 89% of 9)22% (won 84% of 462)

Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.

Markets they hold together now

None of the listed consensus markets is held by two or more of them.