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Compare traders
Two to four tracked traders side by side: their record on consensus markets, where they are strongest, what prices they buy at, how often they side with the consensus and the markets they hold together right now.
| BlackPeopleDontRecycle | manekineko | ticklepickles444 | Onlylose- | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Record (consensus markets) | no settled market | 87% (337–52, n=389) | 89% (8–1, n=9) | 67% (2–1, n=3) |
| Consensus PnL | — | $76K | $25K | $16K |
| Tracked as | PM monthly #750 | Hand-picked | PM monthly #666 | was PM monthly #995 |
| Sides with the consensus | 83% (5 of 6 open) | 75% (9 of 12 open) | 100% (1 of 1 open) | no open consensus position |
| Strongest topics |
|
| none with 10+ settled | none with 10+ settled |
| Weakest topic | Geopolitics −8 pts, n=55 | Politics −2 pts, n=55 | — | — |
| Settled positions, side won | 80% of 166 at avg 80¢, ROI +1% | 86% of 444 at avg 85¢, ROI +1% | 100% of 9 at avg 66¢, ROI +9% | 100% of 1 at avg 42¢, ROI +58% |
| Entries under 30¢ | 3% (won 0% of 5) | 8% (won 9% of 34) | 0% | 0% |
| Entries 30–50¢ | 5% (won 25% of 8) | 4% (won 35% of 17) | 11% (won 100% of 1) | 100% (won 100% of 1) |
| Entries 50–70¢ | 14% (won 54% of 24) | 5% (won 63% of 24) | 33% (won 100% of 3) | 0% |
| Entries 70¢ and up | 78% (won 91% of 129) | 83% (won 97% of 369) | 56% (won 100% of 5) | 0% |
Records and specialties count consensus markets only and run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Edge = how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied.
Markets they hold together now
2 on the same side, 0 on opposite sides. Opposite sides first.
| Market | BlackPeopleDontRecycle | manekineko | ticklepickles444 | Onlylose- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trump out as President before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $32K | No $29K | — | — |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? same side · consensus No | No $7.0K | No $38K | — | — |