Known as OxPredict since Nov 12 2026 · Previously known as: Tobby-Simon (Nov 12 2026)
Consensus PnL -$3.6K · win rate 53% (9–8, n=17) · was PM monthly #569 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-3.6K
Record
9W / 8L
Win Rate
53.0%
of 17 settled
Batting Avg
80.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#736
Source
PM monthly #569
Record (90 d)
9/17 · 53%
Trades
287
Markets
25
Volume
$110.9K
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 0 of 2 on the consensus side (0%)- Jensen Huang announced resignation or removal by December 31, 2026?No $205 · now 0¢ · in at 18¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?Yes $195 · now 2¢ · in at 5¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
15 settled consensus markets · held side won 60% at an average entry of 47¢- Crypto
+12 pts
side won 57% of 14 · avg entry 46¢
ROI −14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 0% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 33% of 3)
- 50–70¢: 67%(won 80% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.