Will annual inflation be 3.6% in October?

12 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 99¢ · $887 held · ends Nov 11

Yes1¢No99¢Ends Wed, Nov 11, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$887.31

Combined PnL

$56.28

Smart Money Entry

95.2¢ → 98.7¢

+4% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No12 traders

Total Value$879.51

Total Shares887

Combined PnL+$55.96

Yes4 traders

Total Value$7.8

Total Shares540

Combined PnL+$0.32

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
CI cigarettes	Noavg 99.1¢	$198.28	$197.3	-$0.98	53% 22496-19712 (42208)
Lucerys	Noavg 99.1¢	$178.46	$178.56	+$0.1	78% 12472-3601 (16073)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271	Noavg 99.6¢	$140.7	$132.39	-$8.3	27% 6823-18740 (25563)
MI mildwindow27	Noavg 64.4¢	$110.08	$103.55	+$66.76	47% 8323-9487 (17810)
QU quietparcel<$100	Noavg 99.6¢	$79.71	$78.92	-$0.79	50% 9754-9733 (19487)
QW qwen300.fund<$100	Noavg 99.5¢	$86.13	$56.06	-$0.31	59% 11786-8040 (19826)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$43.48	$43.48	+$0.01	53% 29191-26096 (55287)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$30.75	$30.58	-$0.17	40% 2163-3205 (5368)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 99.2¢	$28.07	$27.92	-$0.16	47% 1679-1862 (3541)
LU luciebot<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$16.02	$15.87	-$0.1	32% 2469-5347 (7816)
DO donthackme<$100	Noavg 99.8¢	$9.98	$9.92	-$0.06	73% 12849-4764 (17613)
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.7¢	$6.84	$6.01	-$0.83	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
PL plainfolder<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$5	$4.96	-$0.04	31% 3445-7743 (11188)
perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.4¢	$0.37	$1.33	+$0.92	55% 348-281 (629)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.9¢	$0.32	$0.39	+$0.17	58% 19424-14279 (33703)
2B9SCTR<$100	Yesavg 0.2¢	$0.01	$0.07	+$0.06	18% 4276-20026 (24302)

cigarettes

Invested

$198.28

Value

$197.3

PnL

-$0.98

Record

53%

22496-19712 (42208)

Lucerys

Invested

$178.46

Value

$178.56

PnL

+$0.1

Record

78%

12472-3601 (16073)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271

Invested

$140.7

Value

$132.39

PnL

-$8.3

Record

27%

6823-18740 (25563)

mildwindow27

Invested

$110.08

Value

$103.55

PnL

+$66.76

Record

47%

8323-9487 (17810)

quietparcel<$100

Invested

$79.71

Value

$78.92

PnL

-$0.79

Record

50%

9754-9733 (19487)

qwen300.fund<$100

Invested

$86.13

Value

$56.06

PnL

-$0.31

Record

59%

11786-8040 (19826)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$43.48

Value

$43.48

PnL

+$0.01

Record

53%

29191-26096 (55287)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$30.75

Value

$30.58

PnL

-$0.17

Record

40%

2163-3205 (5368)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$28.07

Value

$27.92

PnL

-$0.16

Record

47%

1679-1862 (3541)

luciebot<$100

Invested

$16.02

Value

$15.87

PnL

-$0.1

Record

32%

2469-5347 (7816)

donthackme<$100

Invested

$9.98

Value

$9.92

PnL

-$0.06

Record

73%

12849-4764 (17613)

xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.84

Value

$6.01

PnL

-$0.83

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

plainfolder<$100

Invested

Value

$4.96

PnL

-$0.04

Record

31%

3445-7743 (11188)

perfectnostalgiaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.37

Value

$1.33

PnL

+$0.92

Record

55%

348-281 (629)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.32

Value

$0.39

PnL

+$0.17

Record

58%

19424-14279 (33703)

2B9SCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.01

Value

$0.07

PnL

+$0.06

Record

18%

4276-20026 (24302)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 16 top traders (75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-13 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 57%

Freshness

Mature

24h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on Yes) and the top 1000 (11 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 50% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000No 73% · 11

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.7%

98.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Economics 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.