Consensus PnL -$40K · win rate 66% (31–16, n=47) · PM monthly #499 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-39.6K
Record
31W / 16L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 47 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#617
Source
PM monthly #499
Record (90 d)
5/5 · 100%
Trades
76
Markets
71
Volume
$1.0M
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Specialties
66 settled consensus markets · held side won 59% at an average entry of 60¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where JudgeLance's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: NBA — held side won 46% of 13 at an average 62¢ entry (−16 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 4)
- 50–70¢: 70%(won 52% of 46)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 87% of 15)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.