Consensus PnL -$1.8M · win rate 47% (72–81, n=153) · was PM monthly #467 · no open consensus position
Consensus PnL
$-1.8M
Record
72W / 81L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 153 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#2191
Source
PM monthly #467
Record (90 d)
48/95 · 51%
Trades
118
Markets
158
Volume
$10.8M
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Specialties
155 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 54¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where Bibberino's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Soccer — held side won 41% of 32 at an average 54¢ entry (−13 pts against the price), ROI −15%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 25% of 4)
- 30–50¢: 31%(won 35% of 48)
- 50–70¢: 63%(won 56% of 97)
- 70¢ and up: 4%(won 83% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.