Consensus PnL -$566K · win rate 82% (339–73, n=412) · PM monthly #416 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-565.7K
Record
339W / 73L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 412 settled
Batting Avg
33.2%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#296
Source
PM monthly #416
Record (90 d)
47/48 · 98%
Trades
4,152
Markets
910
Volume
$14.0M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026?No $53K · now 97¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (71% of 7)
- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $147 · now 17¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (79% of 49)
Specialties
752 settled consensus markets · held side won 90% at an average entry of 81¢- NBA
+11 pts
side won 94% of 266 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +9%
- NFL
+14 pts
side won 89% of 82 · avg entry 75¢
ROI +12%
- NHL
+12 pts
side won 90% of 96 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +22%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 60% of 15 at an average 68¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 4%(won 3% of 29)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 69% of 42)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 79% of 106)
- 70¢ and up: 76%(won 98% of 575)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.