Consensus PnL $94K · win rate 82% (408–91, n=499) · PM monthly #977 · holds 44 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$93.6K
Record
408W / 91L
Win Rate
82.0%
of 499 settled
Batting Avg
91.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#290
Source
PM monthly #977
Record (90 d)
120/145 · 83%
Trades
6,563
Markets
591
Volume
$921.3K
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Top consensus positions
44 in listed consensus markets · 41 of 44 on the consensus side (93%)- Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?No $19K · now 91¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (25% of 24)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $14K · now 91¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (57% of 40)
- Iran leadership change by December 31?No $8.0K · now 92¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (74% of 54)
- Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Yes $6.0K · now 88¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (67% of 33)
- Iran leadership change by November 30?No $5.5K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.8K · now 81¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (75% of 9)
- Iran full airspace closure by November 30, 2026?No $3.1K · now 82¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (70% of 20)
- Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?No $3.1K · now 94¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (53% of 15)
Specialties
373 settled consensus markets · held side won 86% at an average entry of 84¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 88% of 218 · avg entry 84¢
ROI +8%
Weakest: Weather — held side won 86% of 100 at an average 88¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −13%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 18% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 10% of 10)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 48% of 23)
- 70¢ and up: 87%(won 95% of 323)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.