Consensus PnL $93K · win rate 48% (673–724, n=1397) · PM monthly #953 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$92.5K
Record
673W / 724L
Win Rate
48.0%
of 1397 settled
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1326
Source
PM monthly #953
Record (90 d)
201/502 · 40%
Trades
0
Markets
2,039
Volume
$745.3K
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Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 48 on the consensus side (31%)- Will "Babydoll – Dominic Fike" be the #2 song for 2026?Yes $980 · now 86¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (35% of 17)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $653 · now 57¢ · in at 41¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $414 · now 69¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (58% of 78)
- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $367 · now 74¢ · in at 40¢with the consensus (65% of 54)
- Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?No $364 · now 99¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (61% of 83)
- Will "End of Beginning – Djo" be the top song for 2026?Yes $346 · now 80¢ · in at 77¢with the consensus (52% of 29)
- Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026?Yes $320 · now 14¢ · in at 16¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Yes $213 · now 94¢ · in at 43¢with the consensus (36% of 45)
Specialties
1,635 settled consensus markets · held side won 47% at an average entry of 41¢- Elections
+7 pts
side won 42% of 645 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +2%
- Geopolitics
+5 pts
side won 63% of 330 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 46% of 192 · avg entry 41¢
ROI +1%
Weakest: Science — held side won 23% of 13 at an average 30¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −9%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 41%(won 12% of 676)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 47% of 257)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 67% of 309)
- 70¢ and up: 24%(won 91% of 393)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.