Consensus PnL -$288K · win rate 80% (184–45, n=229) · PM monthly #635 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-287.6K
Record
184W / 45L
Win Rate
80.0%
of 229 settled
Batting Avg
38.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#335
Source
PM monthly #635
Record (90 d)
25/26 · 96%
Trades
1,354
Markets
361
Volume
$5.0M
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 2 on the consensus side (50%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.6K · now 14¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
292 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 82¢- NBA
+16 pts
side won 92% of 158 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 97% of 35 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 50% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 75% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 16%(won 88% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 98% of 228)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.