Consensus PnL -$288K · win rate 79% (174–45, n=219) · PM monthly #657 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-287.6K
Record
174W / 45L
Win Rate
79.0%
of 219 settled
Batting Avg
38.1%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#377
Source
PM monthly #657
Record (90 d)
18/19 · 95%
Trades
1,354
Markets
349
Volume
$4.9M
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- US recession by end of 2026?No $12K · now 95¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (94% of 32)
- Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 10¢ · in at 65¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.2K · now 5¢ · in at 55¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Republicans win 2 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?No $46 · now 1¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
Specialties
285 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 82¢- NBA
+16 pts
side won 92% of 158 · avg entry 76¢
ROI +8%
- Finance
+11 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 89¢
ROI +3%
- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 97% of 35 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +4%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 50% of 8)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 75% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 17%(won 88% of 48)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 98% of 221)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.