Consensus PnL $57K · win rate 75% (3–1, n=4) · PM monthly #326 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$56.7K
Record
3W / 1L
Win Rate
75.0%
of 4 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#443
Source
PM monthly #326
Record (90 d)
2/4 · 50%
Trades
69
Markets
9
Volume
$71.2K
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Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 1 of 4 on the consensus side (25%)- Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?Yes $83K · now 84¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the NC-03 House seat?Yes $20K · now 30¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (29% of 80)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NC-03 House seat?No $2.5K · now 31¢ · in at 64¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Yes $57 · now 0¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
4 settled consensus markets · held side won 50% at an average entry of 65¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where democraticbroom's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 25%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 25%(won 0% of 1)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.