Consensus PnL $1.2K · win rate 71% (5–2, n=7) · was PM monthly #978 · holds 6 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.2K
Record
5W / 2L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 7 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#703
Source
PM monthly #978
Trades
27
Markets
11
Volume
$114.8K
Top consensus positions
6 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 6 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?No $10K · now 68¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (67% of 21)
- Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?No $6.3K · now 98¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (71% of 34)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $3.0K · now 68¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (77% of 32)
- Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Yes $2.6K · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $2.5K · now 80¢ · in at 52¢with the consensus (78% of 28)
- Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?No $865 · now 99¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (81% of 57)
Specialties
6 settled consensus markets · held side won 67% at an average entry of 61¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where 0x498d2...'s side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%
- 30–50¢: 33%(won 100% of 2)
- 50–70¢: 33%(won 0% of 2)
- 70¢ and up: 33%(won 100% of 2)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.