Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (64%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will voter turnout be 74% or higher in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 36¢ · $446 held · ends Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$445.51
$18.14
62.5¢ → 36¢
-42% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 36%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 64%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Noavg 63.6¢ | $305.61 | $260.28 | -$45.34 | 53% 1087-974 (2061) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271<$100 | Yesavg 30.5¢ | $39.8 | $86.11 | +$46.3 | 32% 4307-9164 (13471) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 30.3¢ | $28.32 | $55.7 | +$27.38 | 36% 14550-25983 (40533) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $40.13 | $27.18 | -$12.95 | 18% 3764-16675 (20439) |
ME melonmanmCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $13.5 | $16.25 | +$2.75 | 65% 483-260 (743) |
Invested
$305.61
Value
$260.28
PnL
-$45.34
Record
53%
1087-974 (2061)
Invested
$39.8
Value
$86.11
PnL
+$46.3
Record
32%
4307-9164 (13471)
Invested
$28.32
Value
$55.7
PnL
+$27.38
Record
36%
14550-25983 (40533)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$40.13
Value
$27.18
PnL
-$12.95
Record
18%
3764-16675 (20439)
Invested
$13.5
Value
$16.25
PnL
+$2.75
Record
65%
483-260 (743)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
36.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.