Consensus PnL $10K · win rate 95% (69–4, n=73) · hand-picked wallet · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$10.1K
Record
69W / 4L
Win Rate
95.0%
of 73 settled
Batting Avg
55.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#163
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
2,009
Markets
172
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 19 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $36K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (94% of 51)
- Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?No $20K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (64% of 11)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?No $15K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (91% of 43)
- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $14K · now 98¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (100% of 23)
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?No $12K · now 96¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (86% of 21)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $9.1K · now 79¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (82% of 134)
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?No $4.3K · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (81% of 43)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $4.2K · now 89¢ · in at 73¢with the consensus (54% of 53)
Specialties
149 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 95¢- Politics
+5 pts
side won 100% of 29 · avg entry 95¢
ROI +4%
- Elections
+3 pts
side won 100% of 23 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
- Crypto
+4 pts
side won 100% of 10 · avg entry 96¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 50% of 2)
- 30–50¢: 0%
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 99%(won 99% of 147)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.