Will Xun win Worlds 2026 Finals MVP?

11 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (79%) · No at 88¢ · $298 held · ends Nov 29

Yes12¢No88¢Ends Sun, Nov 29, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 79%

Total Value

$298.49

Combined PnL

$32.02

Smart Money Entry

95.9¢ → 87.5¢

-9% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes12%

No88%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No11 traders

Total Value$257.7

Total Shares284

Combined PnL-$24.14

Yes3 traders

Total Value$40.78

Total Shares729

Combined PnL+$56.15

No — 79%Yes — 21%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Lucerys<$100	Noavg 97.5¢	$96.14	$76.56	-$9.58	43% 18507-24169 (42676)
BI Bigggggggg<$100	Noavg 98.6¢	$73.29	$64.83	-$8.46	27% 3479-9270 (12749)
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100	Noavg 95.6¢	$29.06	$26.17	-$2.9	70% 16761-7351 (24112)
0X 0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100	Noavg 90¢	$22.99	$22.36	-$0.63	30% 2853-6533 (9386)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Noavg 90¢	$20	$19.43	-$0.57	32% 21161-45384 (66545)
AnjunCTR<$100	Yesavg 5¢	$27.75	$18.87	-$9.16	55% 5484-4526 (10010)
TH TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.8¢	$7.02	$17.01	+$17.32	50% 355-348 (703)
0X 0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100	Noavg 97.2¢	$14.35	$12.99	-$1.36	46% 6185-7387 (13572)
dips.<$100	Noavg 97.6¢	$9.81	$9.8	-$0.02	46% 12136-14078 (26214)
GI GingerMcKenna<$100	Noavg 98.5¢	$10.01	$9.67	-$0.19	34% 3942-7559 (11501)
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100	Noavg 90¢	$8.21	$7.98	-$0.22	46% 6626-7759 (14385)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 1.3¢	$12.99	$4.91	+$47.99	41% 3602-5114 (8716)
0X 0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100	Noavg 90¢	$4.57	$4.44	-$0.13	46% 6881-8137 (15018)
0X 0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100	Noavg 90¢	$3.56	$3.47	-$0.1	50% 9315-9358 (18673)

Lucerys<$100

Invested

$96.14

Value

$76.56

PnL

-$9.58

Record

43%

18507-24169 (42676)

Bigggggggg<$100

Invested

$73.29

Value

$64.83

PnL

-$8.46

Record

27%

3479-9270 (12749)

0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100

Invested

$29.06

Value

$26.17

PnL

-$2.9

Record

70%

16761-7351 (24112)

0x9b129aD05Bc0a8df3C73DfCC66fE75252DaEC2D5-1778811687225<$100

Invested

$22.99

Value

$22.36

PnL

-$0.63

Record

30%

2853-6533 (9386)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Invested

$20

Value

$19.43

PnL

-$0.57

Record

32%

21161-45384 (66545)

AnjunCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.75

Value

$18.87

PnL

-$9.16

Record

55%

5484-4526 (10010)

TheWindKnowsmyNameCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.02

Value

$17.01

PnL

+$17.32

Record

50%

355-348 (703)

0x1F85EB9C455c5BDEF5D96C2739076678c7157B02-1778811447702<$100

Invested

$14.35

Value

$12.99

PnL

-$1.36

Record

46%

6185-7387 (13572)

dips.<$100

Invested

$9.81

Value

$9.8

PnL

-$0.02

Record

46%

12136-14078 (26214)

GingerMcKenna<$100

Invested

$10.01

Value

$9.67

PnL

-$0.19

Record

34%

3942-7559 (11501)

0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100

Invested

$8.21

Value

$7.98

PnL

-$0.22

Record

46%

6626-7759 (14385)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.99

Value

$4.91

PnL

+$47.99

Record

41%

3602-5114 (8716)

0x4E72c22CD76f9973a48aedfd79FeEAaCC8B7FFb9-1778811541343<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.44

PnL

-$0.13

Record

46%

6881-8137 (15018)

0xD71776A8d4FdDeb3c150C4607B3f8bec31213B85-1778810464493<$100

Invested

$3.56

Value

$3.47

PnL

-$0.1

Record

50%

9315-9358 (18673)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 88%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

11 of 14 top traders (79%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%14 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.1%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.29

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.