Consensus PnL $247K · win rate 61% (20–13, n=33) · was PM monthly #987 · holds 2 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$247.4K
Record
20W / 13L
Win Rate
61.0%
of 33 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#755
Source
PM monthly #987
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
3,884
Markets
36
Volume
$297.9K
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Top consensus positions
2 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 2 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $21K · now 13¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (69% of 37)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $16K · now 20¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (73% of 53)
Specialties
29 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 32¢- Elections
+35 pts
side won 69% of 13 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +26%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 55%(won 50% of 16)
- 30–50¢: 17%(won 60% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 28%(won 100% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.