Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 96¢ · $551 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$551.34
-$69.32
91.7¢ → 96¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
3444h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GD Gdub | Noavg 91¢ | $360.04 | $342.42 | +$19.78 | 71% 604-241 (845) |
AV aviato | Noavg 91¢ | $133.88 | $128.45 | +$6.62 | 84% 2511-492 (3003) |
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100 | Noavg 96.6¢ | $78.81 | $62.37 | -$1.07 | 77% 12390-3803 (16193) |
 AnjunCTR | Yesavg 8.6¢ | $105.86 | $11.29 | -$94.57 | 55% 5020-4103 (9123) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100 | Noavg 93.3¢ | $4.88 | $5.02 | +$0.14 | 89% 2283-292 (2575) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $21.38 | $1.79 | -$0.22 | 35% 18318-34086 (52404) |
Invested
$360.04
Value
$342.42
PnL
+$19.78
Record
71%
604-241 (845)
Invested
$133.88
Value
$128.45
PnL
+$6.62
Record
84%
2511-492 (3003)
Invested
$78.81
Value
$62.37
PnL
-$1.07
Record
77%
12390-3803 (16193)
AnjunCTRInvested
$105.86
Value
$11.29
PnL
-$94.57
Record
55%
5020-4103 (9123)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04<$100Invested
$4.88
Value
$5.02
PnL
+$0.14
Record
89%
2283-292 (2575)
Invested
$21.38
Value
$1.79
PnL
-$0.22
Record
35%
18318-34086 (52404)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.