Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?
8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 45¢ · $197 held · ends Nov 13
⚠️
Avoid
No
8
No 100%
$197.44
-$27.7
53.8¢ → 45¢
-16% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 45%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 56%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 56% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 58.5¢ | $101.51 | $83.3 | -$18.21 | 54% 30-26 (56) |
 LornaPredictsCTR<$100 | Noavg 55.2¢ | $33.68 | $29.28 | -$4.4 | 13% 20-131 (151) |
GR graynotebook19CTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $28.8 | $27 | -$1.8 | 26% 851-2483 (3334) |
 balthazarCTR<$100 | Noavg 48.9¢ | $25.76 | $23.69 | -$2.07 | 51% 4609-4510 (9119) |
 LucerysCTR<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $16.5 | $14.4 | -$2.1 | 37% 3161-5372 (8533) |
CI cigarettesCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $8.6 | $9.6 | +$1 | 53% 5614-5046 (10660) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR<$100 | Noavg 49¢ | $5.96 | $5.84 | -$0.12 | 41% 3104-4461 (7565) |
LU luciebotCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $4.32 | $4.32 | +$0 | 78% 326-91 (417) |
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$101.51
Value
$83.3
PnL
-$18.21
Record
54%
30-26 (56)
LornaPredictsCTR<$100Invested
$33.68
Value
$29.28
PnL
-$4.4
Record
13%
20-131 (151)
Invested
$28.8
Value
$27
PnL
-$1.8
Record
26%
851-2483 (3334)
balthazarCTR<$100Invested
$25.76
Value
$23.69
PnL
-$2.07
Record
51%
4609-4510 (9119)
LucerysCTR<$100Invested
$16.5
Value
$14.4
PnL
-$2.1
Record
37%
3161-5372 (8533)
Invested
$8.6
Value
$9.6
PnL
+$1
Record
53%
5614-5046 (10660)
Invested
$5.96
Value
$5.84
PnL
-$0.12
Record
41%
3104-4461 (7565)
Invested
$4.32
Value
$4.32
PnL
+$0
Record
78%
326-91 (417)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.